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风电预测

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发表于 2012-5-16 17:28 |显示全部帖子
本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2012-5-16 17:31 编辑

(1)天气预报,一般4小时以上的预测;
(2)时间序列,一般4小时以内的预测;
(3)空间相关法,是改进上面两种预测的关键技术。这是真傻的创新点,可惜去年申请基金失败。立此存照。宣布这个想法的优先权(当然是在风电预测领域)。
zlyang
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发表于 2013-1-16 22:00 |显示全部帖子

新的猜想:并联线圈和电容

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2013-1-16 22:12 编辑

新的猜想:并联线圈和电容

采用电感线圈和电容的并联谐振来抑制电力系统谐波和间谐波.jpg

好好玩,好有用。

zlyang
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发表于 2014-7-17 13:36 |显示全部帖子

西伯利亚高压图片(美国日本)

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2014-7-17 13:39 编辑

西伯利亚高压图片(美国日本)

     
(1)http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~meto200/3_20_03_lecture_files/slide0010_image079.jpg

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~meto200/3_20_03_lecture_files/slide0010_image079.jpg/3_20_03_lecture_files/slide0010_image079.jpg

Winter monsoon (University of Maryland,  graduate 课程)

winter monsoon (University of Maryland,  graduate 课程)  slide0010_image079.jpg


      

(2)http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/20/6/figure/i1052-5173-20-6-4-f01.htm

Major climatic systems on the Tibetan Plateau: the Westerlies, the East Asia Monsoon, the cold polar airflow from the Siberian high pressure, and the Indian monsoon. Dashed box shows the location of photo in Fig. 2.

The Geological Society of America

    2010 the Westerlies, the East Asia Monsoon (Geological Society of America) i1052.gif

   

(3)http://japaneseclass.jp/trends/about/%E3%82%B7%E3%83%99%E3%83%AA%E3%82%A2%E9%AB%98%E6%B0%97%E5%9C%A7

シベリア高気圧 - Siberian High


シベリア高気圧 - Siberian High(JapaneseClass)fuyu.jpg



zlyang
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发表于 2015-2-9 10:31 |显示全部帖子

可预测性:非周期信号频谱 + Shannon采样定理

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2015-2-9 10:32 编辑

当给定时间区间 ,当某信号的周期大于 时,即为非周期信号。非周期信号在区间 没有得到充分的表达,即这个低频信号“本身内在变化规律”没有得到全部表现,同样不能被有效预测。从傅里叶分析角度看:非周期信号的频谱是宽频率范围的连续频谱。这个连续频谱的高频部分,根据Shannon采样定理,同样不能有效预测。
zlyang
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发表于 2015-10-13 12:01 |显示全部帖子

pa po

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2015-10-13 12:01 编辑

爬坡!
zlyang
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发表于 2016-2-24 15:44 |显示全部帖子

计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2016-2-24 16:04 编辑

2016-02-24 (杨正瓴) 计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系 - 中科院科.pdf (509.32 KB, 下载次数: 0)
投稿了,不知道人家给不给贴出。

核心:

当前提高风电功率“短期”和“超短期”预测的可信途径有:㈠ 采用季风特性的空间相关性,㈡ 可信的组合预测;㈢ 缩短采样周期;㈣ 更精确的风力发电机(以下简称“风机”)的“风速-功率”关系,等。

风机发出的电力有功功率P,不是P。因为风机扇叶受力转速对应的“有效风速”,即v(t)-u(t),才是驱动风机发出电力的直接动力。


因此,只要得到v(t)u(t)之间差异,就可以获得更精确的风机“风速-功率”关系。将风机简化为一阶惯性环节根据“定轴转动刚体转动惯量与转动角加速度的乘积,等于作用于刚体上的所有外力对转轴之矩的代数和”的基本力学原理,即可得到下述微分方程,即如下公式

更精确“风速-功率”关系 04 风速-功率的微分方程.jpg

  

这里J是风机的机械转动惯量,D表示阻尼(风机输出的有功功率、自身转动的阻尼等)。

通过求解该微分方程,就可以根据大自然的风速v(t)风机的机械转动惯量J阻尼D等,得到“有效风速v(t)-u(t)”,获得更精确的风机产生的电力有功功率P

  

本文提出的是思路和原理(应当为“原创”)。今后结合实际风机,考虑更多其它相关因素,建立类似本文上述公式的更精确的微分方程,只是一些具体的技术问题。是对我们思路的跟风。

   
不排除为了回避“所谓的学术道德规范”对今后期刊论文发表的限制,故意在这里贴出“看上去是正确的公式”的可能性。以促进科技进步制定的规范,实际中也可能成为阻碍科技进步的因素。这就是唯物辩证法!这就是一分为二!!
该有用的观点,已经“被”幽默过了。是人类科技进步重要,还是神马规范重要?没有最幽默,只有更幽默!!      

“科学文化的历史积淀不够,科学价值观存在一定偏差,科学原创自信心尚显不足,正在成为制约中国科学走向卓越的深层次因素。”《中国科学院学部主席团发布《追求卓越科学》宣言
zlyang
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发表于 2016-3-15 17:51 |显示全部帖子

感谢科学智慧火花!

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2016-3-15 18:01 编辑

《计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系》,投稿时间:2016-02-24 15:38。
中国科学院科学智慧火花给贴出来了!
感谢科学智慧火花!祝福科学智慧火花!

http://idea.cas.cn/viewdoc.action?docid=45013
2016-02-24 计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系----中科院科学智慧火花.pdf (463.13 KB, 下载次数: 1)









zlyang
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发表于 2016-3-15 17:53 |显示全部帖子

感谢科学智慧火花!


http://idea.cas.cn/viewdoc.action?docid=45013
《计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系》,投稿时间:2016-02-24 15:38,中国科学院科学智慧火花给贴出来了!
感谢科学智慧火花!祝福科学智慧火花!

zlyang
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发表于 2016-5-31 21:47 |显示全部帖子
Natural Earth III – Texture Maps
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/pages/textures.html

Natural Earth III
Data for Visualizing Earth from Space
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/index.html

从太空看地球:Natural Earth III - Data for Visualizing Earth from Space
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/index.html

Natural Earth III – Texture Maps
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/pages/textures.html

1. Deluxe: Earth with edited clouds
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (46.7 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (17.5 MB)

2. Earth without clouds
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (30 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (9.1 MB)

3. Earth without clouds or Arctic Ocean ice
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (28.7 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (8.3 MB)

4. Basic: Earth without clouds, Arctic Ocean ice, or shaded relief
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (26.5 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (7.4 MB)

5. Earth at night
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (14.9 MB).

About the texture maps
Natural Earth III textures derive from Natural Earth II, a previous map dataset depicting world environments and terrain with natural colors. Compared to Natural Earth II, the colors on Natural Earth III are darker and less contrasting to better match the appearance of Earth in photographs taken from space—up to a point. High altitude Earth photographs typically suffer from legibility problems. For example, humid regions with considerable vegetation (the places where many of us live) tend to be dark, drab, and lacking in detail. To remedy this, land on Natural Earth III is more colorful, and both the land and ocean are several shades lighter than photographs.
   
  
Terms of Use
All Natural Earth III data (and images) found on this website are in the public domain. You may use the data in any manner, including modifying the content and design, electronic dissemination, and offset printing. The author, Tom Patterson, renounces all financial claim to the data and invites you to use it for personal, educational, and commercial purposes.
No permission is needed to use Natural Earth III.Crediting the author is unnecessary. However, if you wish to cite the data source, simply use: Tom Patterson, www.shadedrelief.com.
The author provides Natural Earth III as a public service and is not responsible for any problems relating to accuracy, content, design, and how it is used.
zlyang
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发表于 2016-6-1 22:41 |显示全部帖子
国家再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory ) - ...

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NERL).
Wind Integration Datasets

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
http://www.nrel.gov/
http://www.nrel.gov/electricity/transmission/wind_integration_dataset.html

Printable Version
Wind Integration Datasets
The datasets below provide energy professionals with a consistent set of wind profiles for the United States.

Eastern and Western Wind Datasets
The Eastern and Western Wind Datasets provide 10-minute time-series wind data for 2004, 2005, and 2006. These datasets were designed to help energy professionals perform wind integration studies and estimate power production from hypothetical wind plants. For the Eastern dataset, more than 1,326 simulated wind plant data points are available across the eastern United States. For the Western dataset, more than 30,000 data points are available across the western United States.

Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit
The WIND Toolkit is an update and expansion of the Eastern and Western Wind Datasets, and is intended to support the next generation of integration studies. The WIND Toolkit includes meteorological conditions and turbine power for more than 126,000 sites in the continental United States for the years 2007–2013.
zlyang
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发表于 2016-6-8 20:48 |显示全部帖子
Eastern Wind Dataset
The Eastern Wind Dataset contains modeled wind farm data points for the eastern United States for 2004, 2005, and 2006. It is intended for use by energy professionals such as transmission planners, utility planners, project developers, and university researchers who perform wind integration studies and estimate power production from hypothetical wind plants.
http://www.nrel.gov/electricity/transmission/eastern_wind_methodology.htm
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