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风电预测

Rank: 4

发表于 2012-5-16 17:28 |显示全部帖子
本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2012-5-16 17:31 编辑

(1)天气预报,一般4小时以上的预测;
(2)时间序列,一般4小时以内的预测;
(3)空间相关法,是改进上面两种预测的关键技术。这是真傻的创新点,可惜去年申请基金失败。立此存照。宣布这个想法的优先权(当然是在风电预测领域)。
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2013-1-16 22:00 |显示全部帖子

新的猜想:并联线圈和电容

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2013-1-16 22:12 编辑

新的猜想:并联线圈和电容

采用电感线圈和电容的并联谐振来抑制电力系统谐波和间谐波.jpg

好好玩,好有用。

zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

Rank: 4

发表于 2014-7-17 13:36 |显示全部帖子

西伯利亚高压图片(美国日本)

西伯利亚高压图片(美国日本)


   
(1)http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~meto200/3_20_03_lecture_files/slide0010_image079.jpg

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~meto20 ... de0010_image079.jpg

winter monsoon (University of Maryland,  graduate 课程)、

winter monsoon (University of Maryland,  graduate 课程)  slide0010_image079.jpg



  

(2)http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/20/6/figure/i1052-5173-20-6-4-f01.htm

Major climatic systems on the Tibetan Plateau: the Westerlies, the East Asia Monsoon, the cold polar airflow from the Siberian high pressure, and the Indian monsoon. Dashed box shows the location of photo in Fig. 2.

The Geological Society of America

    2010 the Westerlies, the East Asia Monsoon (Geological Society of America) i1052.gif

(3)http://japaneseclass.jp/trends/about/%E3%82%B7%E3%83%99%E3%83%AA%E3%82%A2%E9%AB%98%E6%B0%97%E5%9C%A7

シベリア高気圧 - Siberian High

シベリア高気圧 - Siberian High(JapaneseClass)fuyu.jpg



zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

Rank: 4

发表于 2015-2-9 10:31 |显示全部帖子
当给定时间区间 ,当某信号的周期大于 时,即为非周期信号。非周期信号在区间 没有得到充分的表达,即这个低频信号“本身内在变化规律”没有得到全部表现,同样不能被有效预测。从傅里叶分析角度看:非周期信号的频谱是宽频率范围的连续频谱。这个连续频谱的高频部分,根据Shannon采样定理,同样不能有效预测。
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2015-10-13 12:01 |显示全部帖子
爬坡!

Rank: 4

发表于 2016-2-24 15:44 |显示全部帖子

计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系

计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系
2016-02-24 (杨正瓴) 计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系 - 中科院科.pdf (509.32 KB, 下载次数: 0)

更精确“风速-功率”关系 04 风速-功率的微分方程.jpg
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2016-3-15 17:51 |显示全部帖子

中国科学院科学智慧火花给贴出来了!

《计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系》,投稿时间:2016-02-24 15:38,中国科学院科学智慧火花给贴出来了!
感谢科学智慧火花!祝福科学智慧火花!

2016-02-24 计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系----中科院科学智慧火花.pdf

463.13 KB, 下载次数: 1

zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2016-3-15 17:53 |显示全部帖子

感谢科学智慧火花!


http://idea.cas.cn/viewdoc.action?docid=45013
《计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系》,投稿时间:2016-02-24 15:38,中国科学院科学智慧火花给贴出来了!
感谢科学智慧火花!祝福科学智慧火花!

zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2016-5-31 21:47 |显示全部帖子
Natural Earth III – Texture Maps
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/pages/textures.html

Natural Earth III
Data for Visualizing Earth from Space
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/index.html

从太空看地球:Natural Earth III - Data for Visualizing Earth from Space
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/index.html

Natural Earth III – Texture Maps
http://www.shadedrelief.com/natural3/pages/textures.html

1. Deluxe: Earth with edited clouds
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (46.7 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (17.5 MB)

2. Earth without clouds
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (30 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (9.1 MB)

3. Earth without clouds or Arctic Ocean ice
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (28.7 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (8.3 MB)

4. Basic: Earth without clouds, Arctic Ocean ice, or shaded relief
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (26.5 MB)......8,192 x 4,096 JPEG (7.4 MB)

5. Earth at night
Download:...16,200 x 8,100 JPEG (14.9 MB).

About the texture maps
Natural Earth III textures derive from Natural Earth II, a previous map dataset depicting world environments and terrain with natural colors. Compared to Natural Earth II, the colors on Natural Earth III are darker and less contrasting to better match the appearance of Earth in photographs taken from space—up to a point. High altitude Earth photographs typically suffer from legibility problems. For example, humid regions with considerable vegetation (the places where many of us live) tend to be dark, drab, and lacking in detail. To remedy this, land on Natural Earth III is more colorful, and both the land and ocean are several shades lighter than photographs.
   
  
Terms of Use
All Natural Earth III data (and images) found on this website are in the public domain. You may use the data in any manner, including modifying the content and design, electronic dissemination, and offset printing. The author, Tom Patterson, renounces all financial claim to the data and invites you to use it for personal, educational, and commercial purposes.
No permission is needed to use Natural Earth III.Crediting the author is unnecessary. However, if you wish to cite the data source, simply use: Tom Patterson, www.shadedrelief.com.
The author provides Natural Earth III as a public service and is not responsible for any problems relating to accuracy, content, design, and how it is used.
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2016-6-1 22:41 |显示全部帖子
国家再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory ) - ...

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NERL).
Wind Integration Datasets

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
http://www.nrel.gov/
http://www.nrel.gov/electricity/transmission/wind_integration_dataset.html

Printable Version
Wind Integration Datasets
The datasets below provide energy professionals with a consistent set of wind profiles for the United States.

Eastern and Western Wind Datasets
The Eastern and Western Wind Datasets provide 10-minute time-series wind data for 2004, 2005, and 2006. These datasets were designed to help energy professionals perform wind integration studies and estimate power production from hypothetical wind plants. For the Eastern dataset, more than 1,326 simulated wind plant data points are available across the eastern United States. For the Western dataset, more than 30,000 data points are available across the western United States.

Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit
The WIND Toolkit is an update and expansion of the Eastern and Western Wind Datasets, and is intended to support the next generation of integration studies. The WIND Toolkit includes meteorological conditions and turbine power for more than 126,000 sites in the continental United States for the years 2007–2013.
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2016-6-8 20:48 |显示全部帖子
Eastern Wind Dataset
The Eastern Wind Dataset contains modeled wind farm data points for the eastern United States for 2004, 2005, and 2006. It is intended for use by energy professionals such as transmission planners, utility planners, project developers, and university researchers who perform wind integration studies and estimate power production from hypothetical wind plants.
http://www.nrel.gov/electricity/transmission/eastern_wind_methodology.htm
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2017-4-24 19:50 |显示全部帖子

短期、超短期、中长期风电功率预测是今后几年研究的重点

本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2017-4-24 20:00 编辑

        短期、超短期风电功率预测是今后几年研究的重点,而中长期风电预测应该气象部门的主要任务。
        当前提高短期、超短期风电功率预测的可行途径,除了薛禹胜等2015年在文献《关于短期及超短期风电功率预测的评述》列出的方向之外,还主要包括:①利用空间相关性,②改进风力发电机“风速-功率”转换准确性,③缩短采样周期,④可信的组合预测,⑤使用时间序列的集合预报(ensemble),⑥引入大气运动方程,⑦引入流体力学基本方程等。
        进一步改进NWP,概率化预测等也是有一定的积极意义的。大多数概率化预测是在“点估计”预测的基础上进行的。概率化预测,在降低决策风险方面有明显的积极性。但是否能直接提高对风机或风场发出的“具体的有功功率数值”预测的准确性,尚待进一步研究。
2017-04-04 12:06
http://idea.cas.cn/viewdoc.action?docid=45013
感谢中国科学院《科学智慧火花》编辑部老师和评审专家!
计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系----中科院科学智慧火花.pdf (713.03 KB, 下载次数: 0)
zlyang
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发表于 2017-7-4 21:48 |显示全部帖子
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月球的椭圆轨道(复杂的运动),会引起地球重力的准周期性改变。从而引起半月左右的大气运动变化。
zlyang
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发表于 2017-7-4 21:58 |显示全部帖子
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类似地,地球、月球轨道的各种复杂变化,都会引起重力的变化,都可能影响到天气!!
zlyang
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发表于 2017-7-4 22:25 |显示全部帖子
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地球、月球轨道的各种复杂变化,还会引起大气潮汐,使得空气密度发生一定的变化,这也可能会引起天气的变化。
海洋潮汐、地球固体潮,会不会同样引起地球天气的变化?
zlyang
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发表于 2017-7-4 23:50 |显示全部帖子
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看在人类文明进步的份上,只有555
2017-07-04 关于月球、地球运动可能影响地球天气变化的猜想.pdf (669.58 KB, 下载次数: 0)
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2017-7-5 15:51 |显示全部帖子
本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2017-7-5 15:52 编辑

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读书偶得:叶笃正等老师的《动力气象学》
2017-07-05

        从叶笃正等老师的《动力气象学》里“第四章 大气运动的基本方程”里可见,地球大气运动,与气压梯度力、空气密度、重力(不是引力),还与地转偏向力(Coriolis force)、摩擦力(如大气与海洋、大气与陆地地表)等因素有关。
        不难想象:地球在天空运动,收到月球、太阳、其它行星等天体的影响。因此地球轨道和自转的变化,天体的引潮力,都会在一定程度上影响到这些因素或参数的变化。
        因此地球的大气运动,除了米兰科维奇循环(Milankovich cycles)外,还可能存在其他的天体的周期。大气潮汐、海洋潮汐、地球固体潮等,可能是遥相关(Teleconnection)的某些成因。

zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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发表于 2017-7-5 16:10 |显示全部帖子
本帖最后由 zlyang 于 2017-7-5 16:11 编辑

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大气运动的基本方程的参数或因子,有可能随着地球运动在改变啊!天空里的其它天体,有可能通过引力(引潮力)、(角)动量守恒等,影响到地球的重力、大气受到的摩擦力啊!
zlyang
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发表于 2017-7-5 17:49 |显示全部帖子
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遥相关,又称大气遥相关,相距数千千米以外两地的气候要素之间达到较高程度的相关性。如南方涛动系统中南太平洋塔希提站气压与澳大利亚达尔文站气压之间的负相关。
http://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%81%A5%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3

Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleconnection

Tahiti        17°40′S               149°25′W
Darwin       12°27′0″S            130°50′0″E
正好是引潮力的差别啊!
zlyang
(1)求真(2)真傻

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