在下文的情况下,标准偏差在什么范围才是正常的?(该文针对“The Conscious Universe: The Scientific Truth of Psychic Phenomena
by Dean Radin
HarperEdge 1997 pp320 $25
“---这本书,听说2013年7月份才有中文版)
这里的标准偏差(sigma)是9.5,算不算高,作者(Dean Radin)說是因為考慮到約3300篇未發表文章的才這麼高的。
Radin points out that there were 186 publications on ESP card tests worldwide from 1882 to 1939. "The combined results of this four-million trial database [taken at face value]," he says, "translate into tremendous odds against chance--more than a billion trillion to one." (A 'trial' is the guess of one card) He means that the P value is about 10^-21--he is not writing only for the scientific establishment. This P value corresponds to a bulge above 'chance' expectation of 9.5 sigma, where sigma is the standard deviation. (I call that a 'sigmage' of 9.5.)
看了你有关特异功能的博文很感兴趣。 我讨厌Donald Rumsfeld, 但很欣赏他的一句话:
“there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.” 特异功能,中医,经络,气功,玄学,对正统科学家而言 ,是不是一些 ”unknown unknowns“?
再过50年,这些东西会不会成为”known unknowns", 最终成为“known knowns" 呢?